Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:07 am at Raleigh/Durham); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 2519 RDU 11:33 → MSP 13:17 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 2699 RDU 18:59 → MSP 20:48 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 2519 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:33	MSP 13:17	12%	4%	0.1%	85%
DL 2521 Delta Flight history →	RDU 14:46	MSP 16:41	16%	4%	0.1%	86%
DL 2699 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:59	MSP 20:48	17%	4%	0.2%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON