Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:49 pm at Raleigh/Durham); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Charlotte, leaving 20:11, is the safest bet: 43% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 3033 American Flight history →	RDU 17:47	PHX 19:19	31%	15%	0.7%	58%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 18:40 → LAX 20:46DL 508	1h 49m Los Angeles	LAX 22:35 → PHX 00:06 +1DL 3827 · flown by SkyWest	8h 26m	93%	71%
American Details →	RDU 18:24 → ORD 20:07AA 3696 · flown by Envoy	2h 44m Chicago	ORD 22:51 → PHX 00:56 +1AA 435	9h 32m	97%	69%
American Details →	RDU 17:30 → MIA 19:49AA 2406	2h 23m Miami	MIA 22:12 → PHX 00:06 +1AA 2427	9h 36m	90%	66%
United Details →	RDU 16:51 → IAH 18:58UA 2407	2h 42m Houston	IAH 21:40 → PHX 22:25UA 2432	8h 34m	96%	64%
United Details →	RDU 17:12 → ORD 18:42UA 630	1h 48m Chicago	ORD 20:30 → PHX 22:27UA 602	8h 15m	82%	61%
Southwest Details →	RDU 16:55 → DEN 18:40WN 3428	3h 30m Denver	DEN 22:10 → PHX 23:10WN 1685	9h 15m	98%	60%
American Details →	RDU 19:14 → ORD 21:11AA 4492 · flown by Republic	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → PHX 00:14 +1AA 2786	8h 00m	85%	59%
Delta Details →	RDU 17:25 → ATL 19:01DL 1550	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → PHX 22:39DL 842	8h 14m	95%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RDU 20:08 → CLT 21:20AA 2394	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 22:24 → PHX 23:57AA 2613	6h 49m	58%	34%
Southwest Details →	RDU 19:55 → STL 21:00WN 3457	50m St Louis	STL 21:50 → PHX 23:05WN 4114	6h 10m	54%	29%
American Details →	RDU 18:29 → CLT 19:45AA 2379	50m Charlotte	CLT 20:35 → PHX 21:53AA 2923	6h 24m	50%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON