Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 354 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25%.

Safest bet that day DL 354 RDU 06:38 → SEA 09:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 672 RDU 18:42 → SEA 21:22 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 354 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:38	SEA 09:25	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
AS 670 Alaska Flight history →	RDU 07:02	SEA 09:56	21%	3%	0.9%	74%
AS 572 Alaska Flight history →	RDU 17:34	SEA 20:33	25%	4%	0.7%	72%
AS 672 Alaska	RDU 18:42	SEA 21:22	25%	4%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:33 → MSP 13:17DL 2519	1h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 27m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	RDU 08:05 → MDW 09:00WN 3432	1h 40m Chicago	MDW 10:40 → SEA 13:10WN 1340	8h 05m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON