tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:55 pm at Raleigh/Durham); 5 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:29, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 43% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 18:29 → ATL 20:06DL 2600 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 9h 07m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → RDU 19:38 → IAD 20:53UA 2642 1h 28m Dulles IAD 22:21 → SFO 01:15 +1UA 367 8h 37m 88% 71%
FrontierDetails → RDU 18:25 → DEN 19:35F9 2225 2h 54m Denver DEN 22:29 → SFO 00:23 +1F9 3439 8h 58m 97% 66%
AmericanDetails → RDU 17:59 → PHL 19:34AA 1441 2h 16m Philadelphia PHL 21:50 → SFO 00:59 +1AA 3295 10h 00m 87% 57%
AmericanDetails → RDU 18:26 → JFK 19:21AA 4690 · flown by Republic 2h 05m New York JFK 21:26 → SFO 00:59 +1AA 177 9h 33m 95% 57%
DeltaDetails → RDU 18:40 → LAX 20:46DL 508 1h 14m Los Angeles LAX 22:00 → SFO 23:19DL 2986 7h 39m 86% 54%
AmericanDetails → RDU 18:24 → ORD 20:07AA 3696 · flown by Envoy 1h 10m Chicago ORD 21:17 → SFO 23:59AA 3054 8h 35m 77% 51%
AmericanDetails → RDU 19:31 → DFW 21:43AA 2361 1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → SFO 00:43 +1AA 446 8h 12m 78% 44%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → RDU 18:59 → MSP 20:48DL 2699 52m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089 7h 47m 71% 57%
DeltaDetails → RDU 18:27 → ATL 20:01DL 2621 49m Atlanta ATL 20:50 → SFO 22:49DL 545 7h 22m 70% 47%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 19:45 → MDW 20:40WN 3766 50m Chicago MDW 21:30 → SFO 00:15 +1WN 2893 7h 30m 43% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON