Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:58 am at Raleigh/Durham); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3572 Southwest	RDU 19:50	STL 21:11	21%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 3457 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 19:55	STL 21:00	23%	4%	0.1%	33%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 11:33 → MSP 13:17DL 2519	1h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 15:10 → STL 16:48DL 1224	6h 15m	96%	84%
United Details →	RDU 10:00 → ORD 11:26UA 1448	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 14:20 → STL 15:46UA 2000	6h 46m	95%	83%
Southwest Details →	RDU 11:20 → BWI 12:30WN 1059	3h 25m Baltimore	BWI 15:55 → STL 17:26WN 1171	7h 06m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	RDU 18:29 → ATL 20:06DL 2600	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 24m	98%	81%
American Details →	RDU 11:10 → MIA 13:19AA 2405	2h 22m Miami	MIA 15:41 → STL 17:39AA 477	7h 29m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	RDU 10:40 → BNA 11:15WN 684	1h 20m Nashville	BNA 12:35 → STL 13:58WN 4881	4h 18m	93%	80%
Delta Details →	RDU 12:59 → DTW 14:45DL 2164	2h 00m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	5h 25m	97%	80%
American Details →	RDU 09:18 → LGA 11:18AA 4774 · flown by Republic	1h 40m New York	LGA 12:58 → STL 14:50AA 4509 · flown by Republic	6h 32m	94%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RDU 13:05 → PHL 14:34AA 2403	50m Philadelphia	PHL 15:24 → STL 17:02AA 2714	4h 57m	59%	42%
American Details →	RDU 16:53 → DFW 19:08AA 2371	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:55 → STL 21:48AA 1010	5h 55m	59%	38%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:29 → LGA 13:12DL 4667 · flown by Endeavor	47m New York	LGA 13:59 → STL 15:50DL 4905 · flown by Endeavor	5h 21m	49%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON