Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1348 at 19:22, 25%.

Safest bet today DL 1348 RIC 19:22 → ATL 21:14 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 1437 RIC 15:10 → ATL 16:51 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1348 Delta Flight history →	RIC 19:22	ATL 21:14	25%	6%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
DL 2650 Delta Flight history →	RIC 13:03	ATL 14:52	27%	7%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
DL 3152 Delta Flight history →	RIC 15:08	ATL 16:59	27%	5%	0.6%	80%
DL 1214 Delta Flight history →	RIC 17:28	ATL 19:09	28%	5%	0.6%	79%
DL 1437 Delta Flight history →	RIC 15:10	ATL 16:51	31%	6%	0.6%	89%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON