Today: DL 5622 at 11:36 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–33%.

Safest bet today DL 5622 RIC 11:36 → BOS 13:28 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 782 RIC 18:20 → BOS 19:59 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5622 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 11:36	BOS 13:28	18%	5%	0.4%	87%
DL 5665 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 18:59	BOS 21:00	18%	8%	0.6%	63%
B6 1282 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 11:34	BOS 13:19	31%	14%	0.5%	79%worse than usual
B6 782 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 18:20	BOS 19:59	33%	18%	0.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON