Today: AA 2415 at 09:07 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet today AA 2415 RIC 09:07 → CLT 10:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1909 RIC 20:11 → CLT 21:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2415 American Flight history →	RIC 09:07	CLT 10:35	7%	2%	0.3%	92%
AA 1775 American	RIC 09:13	CLT 10:37	8%	3%	0.3%	no record
AA 5119 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 11:04	CLT 12:28	9%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 5368 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 13:08	CLT 14:34	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 5370 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 13:33	CLT 14:57	12%	4%	0.6%	54%
OH 5027 PSA	RIC 16:01	CLT 17:25	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1757 American	RIC 18:12	CLT 19:30	17%	5%	0.4%	no record
AA 5478 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RIC 18:14	CLT 19:39	19%	7%	0.7%	50%
AA 2412 American Flight history →	RIC 20:13	CLT 21:41	22%	6%	1.9%	63%
AA 1909 American Flight history →	RIC 20:11	CLT 21:29	25%	6%	1.9%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON