Today: AA 3778 at 11:59 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet today AA 3778 RIC 11:59 → DFW 14:34 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2416 RIC 19:28 → DFW 21:43 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 3778 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RIC 11:59	DFW 14:34	15%	3%	0.5%	94%
AA 1915 American Flight history →	RIC 15:10	DFW 17:40	20%	6%	0.4%	68%
AA 2067 American Flight history →	RIC 19:11	DFW 21:33	21%	7%	0.6%	64%
AA 2413 American Flight history →	RIC 15:19	DFW 17:38	23%	6%	0.4%	63%
AA 2416 American Flight history →	RIC 19:28	DFW 21:43	33%	10%	1.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON