Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:35 pm at Richmond); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: DL 3073 at 17:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops today


DL 3073 Delta	RIC 17:00	DTW 18:50	11%	5%	0.1%	no record
DL 4096 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RIC 17:01	DTW 18:59	22%	8%	0.3%	73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RIC 17:24 → ORD 18:53UA 3635 · flown by Republic	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 3475 · flown by Republic	6h 30m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	RIC 14:16 → MSP 16:14DL 5063 · flown by Endeavor	3h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 19:46 → DTW 22:32DL 1484	8h 16m	96%	70%
American Details →	RIC 15:39 → CLT 17:05AA 5370 · flown by PSA	3h 41m Charlotte	CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419	6h 55m	99%	70%
United Details →	RIC 14:38 → EWR 16:08UA 3415 · flown by Republic	1h 52m Newark	EWR 18:00 → DTW 20:13UA 3586 · flown by Republic	5h 35m	93%	67%
Delta Details →	RIC 15:08 → ATL 16:59DL 3152	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:33DL 1232	7h 25m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	7h 31m	97%	67%
Southwest Details →	RIC 18:10 → BWI 19:10WN 3049	3h 30m Baltimore	BWI 22:40 → DTW 00:20 +1WN 942	6h 10m	97%	65%
American Details →	RIC 15:11 → DFW 17:41AA 1915	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:53 → DTW 23:28AA 313	8h 17m	92%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON