Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:12 pm at Richmond); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30% (calm day: 19%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:28, 50% on time.

Nonstops today


YV 4046 Mesa	RIC 16:44	IAH 19:08	17%	6%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RIC 17:24 → ORD 18:53UA 3635 · flown by Republic	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665	8h 10m	97%	80%
United Details →	RIC 16:12 → DEN 18:05UA 400	3h 05m Denver	DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253	9h 29m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	RIC 14:16 → MSP 16:14DL 5063 · flown by Endeavor	2h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683	8h 19m	94%	70%
Delta Details →	RIC 17:01 → DTW 18:59DL 4096 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Detroit	DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633	6h 23m	86%	68%
Delta Details →	RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	7h 29m	97%	68%
American Details →	RIC 15:39 → CLT 17:05AA 5370 · flown by PSA	3h 40m Charlotte	CLT 20:45 → IAH 22:27AA 1840	7h 48m	99%	66%
Delta Details →	RIC 15:08 → ATL 16:59DL 3152	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	7h 16m	96%	64%
United Details →	RIC 14:38 → EWR 16:08UA 3415 · flown by Republic	3h 37m Newark	EWR 19:45 → IAH 22:38UA 265	9h 00m	98%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	4h 56m	75%	50%
United Details →	RIC 18:30 → EWR 20:00UA 3476 · flown by Republic	50m Newark	EWR 20:50 → IAH 23:43UA 2425	6h 13m	67%	43%
American Details →	RIC 15:11 → DFW 17:41AA 1915	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392	5h 43m	69%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON