Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:57 pm at Richmond); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 20:01, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Richmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	RIC 20:01 → ORD 21:36AA 6285 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic	5h 21m	79%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	RIC 19:45 → MDW 20:40WN 3441	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 21:50 → MSP 23:20WN 4085	4h 35m	69%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON