Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4688 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 4688 RIC 07:00 → ORD 08:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1570 RIC 11:50 → ORD 13:04 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4688 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 07:00	ORD 08:33	7%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 224 United Flight history →	RIC 06:00	ORD 07:23	8%	3%	0.7%	82%
UA 3595 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 10:30	ORD 11:59	11%	6%	0.8%	84%
YX 3640 Republic	RIC 10:43	ORD 12:06	12%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 4500 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 12:00	ORD 13:28	13%	6%	0.7%	86%
AA 2569 American	RIC 07:12	ORD 08:26	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 3635 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 17:24	ORD 18:53	19%	6%	0.8%	69%
YX 3693 Republic	RIC 17:44	ORD 19:05	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 6285 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RIC 20:01	ORD 21:36	26%	10%	0.9%	68%
MQ 3442 Envoy	RIC 17:26	ORD 18:36	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 6249 SkyWest	RIC 20:18	ORD 21:31	30%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 1570 American	RIC 11:50	ORD 13:04	31%	8%	2.7%	no record
UA 4547 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	RIC 13:00	ORD 14:26	13%	3%	3.2%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON