tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:51 am at Reno)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 13:41, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 391 Delta Flight history → RNO 22:52 ATL 06:16 21% 6% 0.5% 78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 17:35 → SLC 20:07DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 2h 26m Salt Lake City SLC 22:33 → ATL 04:21 +1DL 8806 7h 46m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595 2h 21m Salt Lake City SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905 7h 54m 93% 76%
DeltaDetails → RNO 19:02 → LAX 20:47DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest 3h 12m Los Angeles LAX 23:59 → ATL 07:33 +1DL 320 9h 31m 98% 75%
SouthwestDetails → RNO 18:20 → LAS 19:45WN 4136 3h 05m Las Vegas LAS 22:50 → ATL 05:45 +1WN 2179 8h 25m 98% 65%
UnitedDetails → RNO 18:55 → SFO 20:13UA 2850 1h 27m San Francisco SFO 21:40 → ATL 05:34 +1UA 233 7h 39m 77% 60%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534 55m Denver DEN 17:50 → ATL 22:57UA 248 6h 16m 76% 55%
AmericanDetails → RNO 14:17 → DFW 19:46AA 324 1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → ATL 00:19 +1AA 2749 7h 02m 83% 50%
AmericanDetails → RNO 12:50 → PHX 14:34AA 2418 1h 37m Phoenix PHX 16:11 → ATL 22:50AA 2391 7h 00m 87% 48%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → RNO 18:55 → SFO 20:13UA 2850 1h 07m San Francisco SFO 21:20 → ATL 05:20 +1UA 1603 7h 25m 71% 55%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534 53m Denver DEN 17:48 → ATL 22:57UA 1305 6h 16m 74% 52%
FrontierDetails → RNO 20:47 → LAS 22:12F9 4242 1h 38m Las Vegas LAS 23:50 → ATL 06:59 +1F9 2428 7h 12m 75% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON