tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:46 pm at Reno); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 12:50, is the safest bet: 39% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2104 Southwest Flight history → RNO 16:15 AUS 21:35 38% 8% 0.1% 69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595 2h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 17:45 → AUS 21:30DL 2728 6h 26m 94% 65%
SouthwestDetails → RNO 15:25 → LAS 16:50WN 3333 3h 35m Las Vegas LAS 20:25 → AUS 01:10 +1WN 2186 7h 45m 99% 62%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534 3h 32m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 8h 03m 97% 61%
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:57 → SFO 15:30UA 2279 2h 57m San Francisco SFO 18:27 → AUS 00:13 +1UA 2126 8h 16m 98% 61%
DeltaDetails → RNO 15:13 → LAX 16:53DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Los Angeles LAX 18:32 → AUS 23:29DL 692 6h 16m 94% 61%
SouthwestDetails → RNO 14:45 → LAS 16:15WN 2184 3h 10m Las Vegas LAS 19:25 → AUS 00:10 +1WN 3569 7h 25m 97% 58%
SouthwestDetails → RNO 12:50 → LAS 14:10WN 4676 2h 45m Las Vegas LAS 16:55 → AUS 21:45WN 2184 6h 55m 100% 58%
UnitedDetails → RNO 14:05 → SFO 15:30UA 4779 · flown by SkyWest 1h 51m San Francisco SFO 17:21 → AUS 23:04UA 2332 6h 59m 91% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RNO 12:50 → PHX 14:34AA 2418 51m Phoenix PHX 15:25 → AUS 19:43AA 2892 4h 53m 65% 35%
SouthwestDetails → RNO 12:50 → LAS 14:10WN 4676 50m Las Vegas LAS 15:00 → AUS 19:50WN 2183 5h 00m 61% 34%
AmericanDetails → RNO 14:17 → DFW 19:46AA 324 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707 5h 20m 57% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON