Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:50 am at Reno); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 3443 at 20:25, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3443 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 20:25	BUR 21:50	24%	7%	0.2%	12%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RNO 10:30 → DEN 13:40WN 3716	1h 58m Denver	DEN 15:38 → BUR 17:13WN 1558	6h 43m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	RNO 10:15 → PHX 12:05WN 4805	2h 05m Phoenix	PHX 14:10 → BUR 15:30WN 1680	5h 15m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	RNO 10:40 → LAS 12:05WN 4133	2h 22m Las Vegas	LAS 14:27 → BUR 15:43WN 2152	5h 03m	100%	67%
United Details →	RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534	2h 18m Denver	DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43UA 2411	7h 02m	91%	67%
Alaska Details →	RNO 12:07 → PDX 13:46AS 3121 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m Portland	PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386	5h 06m	85%	66%
Southwest Details →	RNO 15:05 → DEN 18:25WN 2975	1h 55m Denver	DEN 20:20 → BUR 21:54WN 4390	6h 49m	94%	65%
Southwest Details →	RNO 12:10 → LAS 13:35WN 314	2h 17m Las Vegas	LAS 15:52 → BUR 17:08WN 2259	4h 58m	100%	65%
Southwest Details →	RNO 15:25 → LAS 16:50WN 3333	3h 55m Las Vegas	LAS 20:45 → BUR 21:55WN 2163	6h 30m	99%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	RNO 13:35 → LAS 15:00WN 5057	52m Las Vegas	LAS 15:52 → BUR 17:08WN 2259	3h 33m	71%	46%
United Details →	RNO 13:56 → SFO 15:29UA 2279	46m San Francisco	SFO 16:15 → BUR 17:42UA 2764	3h 46m	59%	36%
United Details →	RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest	47m San Francisco	SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626	3h 39m	54%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON