Today: WN 3890 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–20%.

Safest bet today WN 3890 RNO 06:00 → DEN 09:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 5316 RNO 15:57 → DEN 19:18 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3890 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 06:00	DEN 09:05	3%	1%	0.2%	91%
WN 3580 Southwest	RNO 06:36	DEN 09:51	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
UA 225 United Flight history →	RNO 05:30	DEN 08:47	5%	2%	0.3%	93%
WN 3716 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 10:30	DEN 13:40	8%	2%	0.2%	96%
WN 2497 Southwest	RNO 10:36	DEN 13:51	9%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 347 United Flight history →	RNO 09:05	DEN 12:21	10%	3%	0.3%	90%
OO 5739 SkyWest	RNO 11:19	DEN 14:56	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1534 United Flight history →	RNO 13:41	DEN 16:55	17%	4%	0.2%	81%
UA 1225 United Flight history →	RNO 18:43	DEN 21:59	19%	6%	0.6%	75%
WN 1254 Southwest	RNO 14:45	DEN 18:00	19%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 2975 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 15:05	DEN 18:25	20%	4%	0.1%	61%
OO 5316 SkyWest	RNO 15:57	DEN 19:18	20%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON