Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2698 RNO 23:59 → DFW 05:10 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest AA 324 RNO 14:17 → DFW 19:46 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2698 American Flight history →	RNO 23:59	DFW 05:10	18%	6%	2.1%	65%
AA 1911 American Flight history →	RNO 11:03	DFW 16:27	23%	6%	0.7%	81%
AA 324 American Flight history →	RNO 14:17	DFW 19:46	25%	8%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON