Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 27 nonstops

Today: WN 1651 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–30%.

Safest bet today WN 1651 RNO 05:15 → LAS 06:39 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4244 RNO 13:04 → LAS 14:29 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1651 Southwest	RNO 05:15	LAS 06:39	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 3445 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 05:20	LAS 06:40	2%	1%	0.4%	93%
WN 4334 Southwest	RNO 05:55	LAS 07:19	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 4750 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 06:20	LAS 07:40	3%	1%	0.4%	97%
WN 2272 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 09:30	LAS 10:55	8%	2%	0.3%	94%
WN 4157 Southwest	RNO 09:30	LAS 10:54	8%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4133 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 10:40	LAS 12:05	11%	3%	0.2%	95%
WN 2659 Southwest	RNO 20:45	LAS 22:09	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2184 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 14:45	LAS 16:15	12%	5%	0.6%	72%
WN 1276 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 08:40	LAS 10:10	12%	3%	0.2%	98%worse than usual
WN 314 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 12:10	LAS 13:35	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 2499 Southwest	RNO 15:35	LAS 17:00	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2435 Southwest	RNO 08:40	LAS 10:05	14%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 3333 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 15:25	LAS 16:50	14%	6%	0.6%	62%
WN 2609 Southwest	RNO 12:30	LAS 13:54	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4676 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 12:50	LAS 14:10	15%	3%	0.6%	78%
WN 4136 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 18:20	LAS 19:45	15%	6%	0.5%	67%
WN 5057 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 13:35	LAS 15:00	15%	4%	0.6%	72%
WN 4766 Southwest	RNO 11:25	LAS 12:50	15%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4357 Southwest	RNO 17:45	LAS 19:09	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2177 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 19:45	LAS 21:10	16%	5%	0.5%	64%
WN 352 Southwest	RNO 19:45	LAS 21:10	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 2833 Southwest	RNO 16:55	LAS 18:20	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4078 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 16:15	LAS 17:40	17%	6%	0.6%	75%
F9 4248 Frontier Flight history →	RNO 08:44	LAS 10:17	23%	8%	2.4%	70%
F9 4242 Frontier Flight history →	RNO 20:47	LAS 22:12	30%	9%	1.2%	69%
F9 4244 Frontier Flight history →	RNO 13:04	LAS 14:29	34%	13%	1.2%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON