Today: UA 2096 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet today UA 2096 RNO 05:25 → LAX 07:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 669 RNO 19:05 → LAX 20:37 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2096 United Flight history →	RNO 05:25	LAX 07:03	6%	2%	0.3%	97%
DL 4106 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 07:00	LAX 08:45	10%	3%	0.3%	88%
UA 5621 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 07:17	LAX 08:49	11%	3%	0.3%	93%
UA 5328 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 10:12	LAX 12:05	12%	3%	0.3%	94%
DL 4099 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 10:33	LAX 12:13	14%	3%	0.3%	92%
OO 457 SkyWest	RNO 10:12	LAX 11:49	16%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 5908 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 18:35	LAX 20:30	17%	9%	0.6%	89%
DL 4126 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 19:02	LAX 20:47	18%	9%	0.6%	84%
WN 3512 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 12:40	LAX 14:10	21%	4%	0.4%	50%
DL 3902 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 15:13	LAX 16:53	21%	4%	0.2%	84%
UA 2681 United	RNO 16:20	LAX 17:54	24%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 669 Southwest	RNO 19:05	LAX 20:37	25%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON