Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:35 am at Reno)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 10:30, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops today


WN 3449 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 09:45	MDW 15:30	13%	2%	0.1%	88%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RNO 19:30 → SJC 20:45WN 2496	2h 15m San Jose	SJC 23:00 → MDW 05:09 +1WN 3824	7h 39m	96%	83%
Southwest Details →	RNO 17:15 → SAN 18:55WN 4485	3h 41m San Diego	SAN 22:36 → MDW 04:38 +1WN 1511	9h 23m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	RNO 19:45 → LAS 21:10WN 2177	2h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	7h 40m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	RNO 10:30 → DEN 13:40WN 3716	2h 10m Denver	DEN 15:50 → MDW 19:15WN 1603	6h 45m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	RNO 12:50 → LAS 14:10WN 4676	2h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 16:20 → MDW 21:54WN 2840	7h 04m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	RNO 08:40 → LAS 10:10WN 1276	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 11:20 → MDW 16:50WN 4506	6h 10m	91%	73%
Southwest Details →	RNO 09:30 → LAS 10:55WN 2272	1h 21m Las Vegas	LAS 12:16 → MDW 17:49WN 759	6h 19m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	RNO 12:10 → LAS 13:35WN 314	2h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 16:05 → MDW 21:45WN 2274	7h 35m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON