tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:45 am at Reno); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 13:41, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534 3h 59m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 8h 18m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → RNO 17:35 → SLC 20:07DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 21:17 → MSP 00:53 +1DL 8803 5h 18m 89% 76%
SouthwestDetails → RNO 10:30 → DEN 13:40WN 3716 1h 46m Denver DEN 15:26 → MSP 18:28WN 4541 5h 58m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → RNO 10:33 → LAX 12:13DL 4099 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Los Angeles LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198 8h 26m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → RNO 15:13 → LAX 16:53DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 1h 57m Los Angeles LAX 18:50 → MSP 00:20 +1DL 2180 7h 07m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → RNO 13:04 → SLC 15:34DL 1595 1h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935 5h 50m 92% 72%
AmericanDetails → RNO 13:04 → PHX 15:00AA 1437 3h 50m Phoenix PHX 18:50 → MSP 23:58AA 3142 8h 54m 100% 63%
UnitedDetails → RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → MSP 21:57UA 648 8h 19m 99% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RNO 16:21 → PHX 18:14AA 4165 · flown by Envoy 47m Phoenix PHX 19:01 → MSP 00:05 +1AA 2820 5h 44m 68% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON