Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:02 pm at Reno); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 19:07, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	RNO 19:07 → PHX 21:01AA 4053 · flown by Envoy	2h 30m Phoenix	PHX 23:31 → ORD 05:03 +1AA 3236	7h 56m	98%	77%
United Details →	RNO 18:35 → LAX 20:30UA 5908 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 22:35 → ORD 04:51 +1UA 353	8h 16m	98%	74%
United Details →	RNO 18:55 → SFO 20:13UA 2850	3h 17m San Francisco	SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368	9h 02m	91%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON