Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 20% on a calm day. Safest: WN 743 at 09:50, 18%.

Safest bet today WN 743 RNO 09:50 → SAN 11:32 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3594 RNO 16:30 → SAN 18:12 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 743 Southwest	RNO 09:50	SAN 11:32	18%	6%	0.3%	no record
WN 3595 Southwest	RNO 21:05	SAN 22:46	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3506 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 21:10	SAN 22:50	26%	7%	0.6%	58%
WN 3454 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 11:15	SAN 12:50	31%	9%	0.3%	38%
AS 3111 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 11:43	SAN 13:27	32%	11%	1.1%	67%
WN 4485 Southwest Flight history →	RNO 17:15	SAN 18:55	42%	13%	0.3%	40%
WN 3594 Southwest	RNO 16:30	SAN 18:12	42%	12%	0.3%	no record
AS 2234 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	RNO 07:48	SAN 09:25	21%	0%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON