Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 25–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2279 RNO 13:56 → SFO 15:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest UA 4779 RNO 14:05 → SFO 15:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2279 United Flight history →	RNO 13:56	SFO 15:29	25%	6%	0.2%	66%
UA 1219 United	RNO 18:41	SFO 20:09	26%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 2850 United Flight history →	RNO 18:55	SFO 20:13	30%	9%	0.2%	18%
UA 4779 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 14:05	SFO 15:30	31%	10%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON