Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:46 am at Reno); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 3732 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RNO 17:35	SLC 20:07	14%	4%	0.1%	89%
DL 1595 Delta Flight history →	RNO 13:04	SLC 15:34	15%	4%	0.1%	90%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Reno). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	RNO 10:30 → DEN 13:40WN 3716	3h 10m Denver	DEN 16:50 → SLC 18:35WN 1733	7h 05m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	RNO 12:07 → PDX 13:46AS 3121 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m Portland	PDX 17:40 → SLC 20:41AS 3291 · flown by SkyWest	7h 34m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	RNO 15:13 → LAX 16:53DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest	2h 22m Los Angeles	LAX 19:15 → SLC 22:04DL 1483	5h 51m	99%	73%
Southwest Details →	RNO 18:20 → LAS 19:45WN 4136	2h 32m Las Vegas	LAS 22:17 → SLC 00:42 +1WN 2425	5h 22m	95%	68%
Delta Details →	RNO 19:02 → LAX 20:47DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Los Angeles	LAX 22:01 → SLC 00:51 +1DL 8785	4h 49m	88%	67%
United Details →	RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534	2h 28m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	6h 15m	92%	67%
Southwest Details →	RNO 10:15 → PHX 12:05WN 4805	3h 05m Phoenix	PHX 15:10 → SLC 17:50WN 897	6h 35m	100%	67%
Southwest Details →	RNO 19:00 → PHX 20:55WN 3452	1h 55m Phoenix	PHX 22:50 → SLC 01:30 +1WN 849	5h 30m	87%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	RNO 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1534	50m Denver	DEN 17:45 → SLC 19:25UA 5762 · flown by SkyWest	4h 44m	68%	52%
American Details →	RNO 13:04 → PHX 15:00AA 1437	48m Phoenix	PHX 15:48 → SLC 18:29AA 3103	4h 25m	63%	45%
United Details →	RNO 11:38 → SFO 13:03UA 5899 · flown by SkyWest	53m San Francisco	SFO 13:56 → SLC 16:55UA 2017	4h 17m	59%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON