Today: WN 3596 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–15%.

Safest bet today WN 3596 ROC 05:50 → BWI 07:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4354 ROC 17:50 → BWI 19:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3596 Southwest	ROC 05:50	BWI 07:15	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 4680 Southwest Flight history →	ROC 06:15	BWI 07:25	5%	1%	0.2%	96%
WN 2246 Southwest	ROC 11:26	BWI 12:50	10%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 3458 Southwest Flight history →	ROC 12:55	BWI 14:10	11%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 2791 Southwest	ROC 17:45	BWI 19:09	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4354 Southwest Flight history →	ROC 17:50	BWI 19:10	15%	5%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON