Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 5377 at 12:06 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 5377 ROC 12:06 → CLT 14:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 2424 ROC 19:03 → CLT 21:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5377 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ROC 12:06	CLT 14:15	11%	6%	0.7%	82%
AA 1058 American Flight history →	ROC 05:00	CLT 06:54	11%	3%	0.5%	92%
AA 1485 American Flight history →	ROC 06:20	CLT 08:22	11%	4%	0.5%	85%
OH 5630 PSA	ROC 11:51	CLT 13:51	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2320 American Flight history →	ROC 18:48	CLT 20:52	23%	6%	1.2%	74%
AA 2424 American Flight history →	ROC 19:03	CLT 21:00	33%	6%	1.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON