Today: OH 5144 at 11:19 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet today OH 5144 ROC 11:19 → DCA 12:52 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5375 ROC 17:43 → DCA 19:15 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


OH 5144 PSA	ROC 11:19	DCA 12:52	21%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 5374 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ROC 11:50	DCA 13:19	26%	10%	0.9%	58%
AA 5457 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ROC 17:06	DCA 18:48	30%	13%	1.0%	56%
AA 5375 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ROC 17:43	DCA 19:15	35%	14%	1.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON