Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3626 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Safest bet that day UA 3626 ROC 06:00 → EWR 07:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 3580 ROC 16:15 → EWR 17:37 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3626 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 06:00	EWR 07:20	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 3580 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 16:15	EWR 17:37	24%	5%	0.7%	74%
UA 4385 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 19:10	EWR 20:30	62%	38%	17.1%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON