Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: B6 1185 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–28%.

Safest bet that day B6 1185 ROC 06:38 → JFK 08:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 485 ROC 20:34 → JFK 22:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 1185 JetBlue Flight history →	ROC 06:38	JFK 08:00	9%	4%	0.6%	89%
B6 1285 JetBlue Flight history →	ROC 07:07	JFK 08:31	10%	4%	0.6%	84%
B6 485 JetBlue Flight history →	ROC 20:34	JFK 22:00	28%	9%	0.9%	83%worse than usual
DL 5318 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 05:30	JFK 06:59	10%	6%	6.6%	90%
DL 5330 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 11:33	JFK 12:59	19%	7%	2.7%	81%
DL 5289 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ROC 16:28	JFK 17:59	28%	16%	7.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON