Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:28 pm at Rochester); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 5054 at 18:12, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 5054 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ROC 18:12	LGA 19:33	26%	7%	0.4%	63%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ROC 17:05 → DCA 18:47AA 5457 · flown by PSA	3h 26m Washington	DCA 22:13 → LGA 23:35AA 4719 · flown by Republic	6h 30m	96%	69%
American Details →	ROC 17:43 → DCA 19:15AA 5375 · flown by PSA	3h 15m Washington	DCA 22:30 → LGA 23:44AA 4660 · flown by Republic	6h 01m	87%	61%
United Details →	ROC 17:52 → ORD 19:00UA 2059	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 20:08 → LGA 23:26UA 2827	5h 34m	78%	58%
Delta Details →	ROC 18:15 → ATL 20:35DL 2047	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 21:52 → LGA 23:59DL 9961	5h 44m	77%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ROC 19:03 → CLT 21:00AA 2424	55m Charlotte	CLT 21:55 → LGA 23:57AA 2031	4h 54m	55%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON