Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1142 at 12:30, 22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1142 ROC 12:30 → MCO 15:17 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2877 ROC 16:45 → MCO 19:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Weather 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1142 Southwest	ROC 12:30	MCO 15:17	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
B6 1043 JetBlue Flight history →	ROC 14:19	MCO 17:15	33%	16%	1.6%	74%
WN 2877 Southwest Flight history →	ROC 16:45	MCO 19:35	37%	13%	1.2%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON