Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 3597 ROC 08:00 → MDW 09:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2693 ROC 19:35 → MDW 20:25 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3597 Southwest	ROC 08:00	MDW 09:00	7%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3460 Southwest Flight history →	ROC 08:20	MDW 09:05	9%	1%	0.2%	90%
WN 548 Southwest	ROC 19:15	MDW 20:15	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2693 Southwest Flight history →	ROC 19:35	MDW 20:25	16%	5%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON