tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:43 pm at Fort Myers); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 52%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: F9 1545 at 20:09, 52%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
F9 1545 Frontier Flight history → RSW 20:09 CLE 22:54 52% 26% 1.8% 62%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559 2h 19m Detroit DTW 23:04 → CLE 00:05 +1DL 4646 · flown by Endeavor 6h 16m 93% 78%
UnitedDetails → RSW 16:39 → ORD 19:00UA 2832 2h 20m Chicago ORD 21:20 → CLE 23:49UA 457 7h 10m 87% 71%
DeltaDetails → RSW 18:27 → ATL 20:24DL 1349 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320 6h 22m 89% 66%
SouthwestDetails → RSW 18:55 → BWI 21:30WN 4294 1h 25m Baltimore BWI 22:55 → CLE 00:20 +1WN 909 5h 25m 81% 56%
AmericanDetails → RSW 15:59 → CLT 18:05AA 2444 2h 39m Charlotte CLT 20:44 → CLE 22:21AA 3146 6h 22m 96% 51%
AmericanDetails → RSW 19:56 → CLT 21:57AA 1930 1h 11m Charlotte CLT 23:08 → CLE 00:51 +1AA 1965 4h 55m 79% 47%
AmericanDetails → RSW 17:26 → DCA 20:00AA 2454 2h 30m Washington DCA 22:30 → CLE 23:59AA 5079 · flown by PSA 6h 33m 83% 45%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → RSW 18:55 → BWI 21:30WN 4294 47m Baltimore BWI 22:17 → CLE 23:42WN 1533 4h 47m 35% 25%
AmericanDetails → RSW 19:56 → CLT 21:57AA 1930 53m Charlotte CLT 22:50 → CLE 00:29 +1AA 2260 4h 33m 36% 22%
JetBlueDetails → RSW 17:28 → JFK 19:43B6 1530 56m New York JFK 20:39 → CLE 22:31B6 2768 5h 03m 25% 11%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON