Today: AA 2427 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet today AA 2427 RSW 10:00 → CLT 12:01 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1930 RSW 19:55 → CLT 21:56 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2427 American Flight history →	RSW 10:00	CLT 12:01	13%	7%	0.4%	79%
AA 2018 American Flight history →	RSW 11:49	CLT 13:52	21%	7%	0.5%	72%
AA 2444 American Flight history →	RSW 15:59	CLT 18:05	23%	7%	0.5%	59%
AA 1781 American	RSW 13:53	CLT 15:52	23%	7%	0.5%	no record
AA 2442 American Flight history →	RSW 19:41	CLT 21:45	28%	8%	0.6%	74%
AA 1930 American Flight history →	RSW 19:55	CLT 21:56	28%	8%	0.6%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON