Today: AA 2916 at 11:30 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–30%.

Safest bet today AA 2916 RSW 11:30 → DCA 14:13 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 2454 RSW 17:26 → DCA 20:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2916 American Flight history →	RSW 11:30	DCA 14:13	20%	9%	0.4%	71%
AA 2448 American Flight history →	RSW 14:05	DCA 16:37	28%	11%	0.5%	70%
AA 2454 American Flight history →	RSW 17:26	DCA 20:00	30%	10%	3.0%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON