Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1354 RSW 15:56 → DEN 18:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 203 RSW 16:45 → DEN 18:49 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1354 United Flight history →	RSW 15:56	DEN 18:25	15%	4%	0.2%	91%
UA 778 United	RSW 16:04	DEN 18:09	16%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 203 Southwest	RSW 16:45	DEN 18:49	20%	4%	0.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	RSW 19:20 → STL 20:55WN 3472	55m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DEN 23:10WN 4067	5h 50m	76%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON