Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1281 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1281 RSW 06:01 → DFW 08:05 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2736 RSW 18:15 → DFW 20:14 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1281 American Flight history →	RSW 06:01	DFW 08:05	10%	4%	0.8%	93%
AA 2428 American Flight history →	RSW 11:50	DFW 13:43	26%	5%	2.7%	70%
AA 2740 American Flight history →	RSW 14:29	DFW 16:39	29%	6%	3.2%	69%
AA 2446 American Flight history →	RSW 18:22	DFW 20:24	31%	8%	3.9%	55%
AA 2438 American Flight history →	RSW 14:25	DFW 16:26	33%	6%	3.2%	70%
AA 2736 American Flight history →	RSW 18:15	DFW 20:14	33%	9%	4.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON