Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2455 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2455 RSW 06:02 → EWR 08:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1792 RSW 16:28 → EWR 19:20 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2455 United Flight history →	RSW 06:02	EWR 08:59	5%	2%	0.8%	94%
UA 2053 United	RSW 06:46	EWR 09:38	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2477 United Flight history →	RSW 08:57	EWR 12:01	7%	3%	0.7%	68%
UA 2624 United Flight history →	RSW 12:15	EWR 15:12	23%	9%	2.2%	83%
UA 1926 United	RSW 12:01	EWR 14:52	25%	9%	2.2%	no record
UA 2601 United Flight history →	RSW 18:30	EWR 21:38	33%	12%	2.3%	63%
UA 1792 United	RSW 16:28	EWR 19:20	38%	12%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON