Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2832 RSW 16:39 → ORD 19:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time Riskiest AA 2561 RSW 17:09 → ORD 19:22 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2832 United Flight history →	RSW 16:39	ORD 19:00	24%	6%	0.3%	63%
UA 1495 United	RSW 16:29	ORD 18:41	26%	5%	0.3%	no record
AA 2561 American Flight history →	RSW 17:09	ORD 19:22	33%	10%	0.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON