Today: WN 262 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet today WN 262 RSW 06:10 → STL 07:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3472 RSW 19:20 → STL 20:55 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 262 Southwest	RSW 06:10	STL 07:54	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3471 Southwest Flight history →	RSW 05:55	STL 07:25	3%	1%	0.2%	95%
WN 3619 Southwest	RSW 13:45	STL 15:29	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3620 Southwest	RSW 19:25	STL 21:10	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3472 Southwest Flight history →	RSW 19:20	STL 20:55	24%	6%	0.7%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON