Today: WN 1338 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet today WN 1338 SAN 08:31 → ABQ 11:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4839 SAN 20:20 → ABQ 23:15 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1338 Southwest	SAN 08:31	ABQ 11:25	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 285 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 09:00	ABQ 11:50	12%	2%	0.2%	69%
WN 1059 Southwest	SAN 19:55	ABQ 22:50	31%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 4839 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 20:20	ABQ 23:15	33%	9%	0.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON