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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 729 SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 843 SAN 13:01 → ATL 20:14 · 17% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

DL 729 Delta Flight history → SAN 06:15 ATL 13:49 8% 2% 0.8% 92%
DL 819 Delta Flight history → SAN 22:30 ATL 05:50 8% 2% 0.8% 95%
DL 828 Delta Flight history → SAN 21:30 ATL 05:01 12% 3% 0.8% 67%
DL 1179 Delta Flight history → SAN 08:00 ATL 15:33 12% 2% 0.9% 86%
DL 725 Delta Flight history → SAN 10:36 ATL 18:11 15% 3% 1.0% 87%
DL 712 Delta Flight history → SAN 12:59 ATL 20:41 15% 4% 1.0% 87%
DL 540 Delta Flight history → SAN 14:18 ATL 22:00 15% 6% 1.0% 83%
DL 843 Delta SAN 13:01 ATL 20:14 17% 5% 1.0% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:30 → DEN 09:55WN 3493 50m Denver DEN 10:45 → ATL 15:35WN 2258 6h 05m 90% 68%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 07:45 → AUS 12:35WN 3475 1h 00m Austin AUS 13:35 → ATL 16:51WN 267 6h 06m 84% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON