Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3896 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3896 SAN 06:40 → BWI 14:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 4148 SAN 14:10 → BWI 22:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 21% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3896 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:40	BWI 14:50	9%	1%	0.2%	86%
WN 2127 Southwest	SAN 06:45	BWI 14:35	10%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3486 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:40	BWI 05:35	22%	5%	0.7%	65%
WN 3390 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 11:15	BWI 19:20	25%	4%	0.7%	74%
WN 3630 Southwest	SAN 13:07	BWI 20:58	30%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 4148 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:10	BWI 22:10	33%	7%	0.7%	21%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SAN 06:40 → PHX 08:10WN 3447	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 09:30 → BWI 16:55WN 1039	7h 15m	90%	71%
Southwest Details →	SAN 09:45 → LAS 11:10WN 2695	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 12:25 → BWI 19:54WN 1004	7h 09m	100%	66%
Southwest Details →	SAN 10:40 → PHX 12:05WN 4134	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 13:05 → BWI 20:21WN 1562	6h 41m	75%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON