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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:17, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1133 Southwest Flight history → SAN 12:10 BZN 15:55 22% 4% 0.6% 58%
AS 2221 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record SAN 11:38 BZN 15:24 42% 10% 1.9% 58%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SAN 06:30 → DEN 09:55WN 3493 2h 35m Denver DEN 12:30 → BZN 14:10WN 4219 6h 40m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:35 → DEN 10:08UA 2368 3h 36m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 7h 58m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 6h 22m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 10:35 → DEN 13:55WN 3495 2h 55m Denver DEN 16:50 → BZN 18:35WN 4790 7h 00m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 09:20 → DEN 12:45WN 3494 3h 10m Denver DEN 15:55 → BZN 17:41WN 4530 7h 21m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 14:55 → DEN 18:20WN 3497 3h 25m Denver DEN 21:45 → BZN 23:35WN 1505 7h 40m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 18:05 → LAS 19:30WN 2352 2h 35m Las Vegas LAS 22:05 → BZN 01:15 +1WN 992 6h 10m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 2h 58m Denver DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest 7h 25m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 19:13 → SLC 22:15DL 833 50m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 4h 10m 58% 49%
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:15 → DFW 12:30AA 373 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:19 → BZN 15:22AA 1647 7h 07m 61% 46%
UnitedDetails → SAN 09:26 → SFO 11:12UA 1113 48m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → BZN 15:21UA 562 4h 55m 40% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON