tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:03 pm at San Diego); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39% (calm day: 22%). Best bet: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:15, 52% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4808 Southwest Flight history → SAN 16:30 CMH 23:55 55% 23% 0.5% 8%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117 3h 52m San Francisco SFO 21:41 → CMH 05:32 +1UA 1160 10h 23m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → SAN 13:37 → ORD 19:10AA 2131 1h 45m Chicago ORD 20:55 → CMH 23:33AA 4445 · flown by Republic 6h 56m 77% 70%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 15:16 → SEA 18:14AS 1381 3h 58m Seattle SEA 22:12 → CMH 05:40 +1AS 280 11h 24m 100% 51%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:50 → PHX 15:15WN 765 3h 10m Phoenix PHX 18:25 → CMH 01:08 +1WN 160 8h 18m 97% 50%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:55 → DAL 19:05WN 4097 1h 40m Dallas DAL 20:45 → CMH 00:10 +1WN 1341 7h 15m 86% 46%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:20 → DEN 16:55WN 3496 1h 50m Denver DEN 18:45 → CMH 23:32WN 2720 7h 12m 75% 39%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:55 → DAL 19:05WN 4097 1h 05m Dallas DAL 20:10 → CMH 23:35WN 1289 6h 40m 51% 27%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:30 → STL 19:05WN 3552 50m St Louis STL 19:55 → CMH 22:27WN 264 5h 57m 34% 24%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 18:28 → SEA 21:15AS 683 57m Seattle SEA 22:12 → CMH 05:40 +1AS 280 8h 12m 24% 12%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON