Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3906 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3906 SAN 06:20 → DAL 11:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 3492 SAN 18:10 → DAL 23:15 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3906 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:20	DAL 11:25	7%	1%	0.7%	89%
WN 2324 Southwest	SAN 06:30	DAL 11:28	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4751 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:10	DAL 13:15	12%	2%	0.7%	86%
WN 3635 Southwest	SAN 08:43	DAL 13:40	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4374 Southwest	SAN 11:23	DAL 16:20	25%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4097 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 13:55	DAL 19:05	25%	5%	0.7%	23%
WN 3582 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 15:15	DAL 20:25	27%	6%	0.7%	51%
WN 3492 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:10	DAL 23:15	28%	8%	0.7%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON