Today: UA 2476 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–35%.

Safest bet today UA 2476 SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 3012 SAN 15:45 → DEN 19:18 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2476 United Flight history →	SAN 08:45	DEN 12:17	21%	4%	0.2%	89%
AS 1619 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 20:01	DEN 23:30	21%	4%	0.4%	96%worse than usual
UA 1715 United Flight history →	SAN 10:55	DEN 14:27	24%	6%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
UA 2793 United	SAN 11:02	DEN 14:44	24%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4492 Southwest	SAN 21:15	DEN 00:38	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1565 United Flight history →	SAN 12:33	DEN 16:06	26%	7%	0.2%	87%worse than usual
UA 519 United Flight history →	SAN 18:55	DEN 22:27	26%	7%	0.2%	88%worse than usual
WN 3494 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 09:20	DEN 12:45	28%	3%	0.3%	70%
WN 3495 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 10:35	DEN 13:55	29%	3%	0.2%	68%
WN 4152 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 19:40	DEN 23:05	31%	8%	0.2%	42%
AS 635 Alaska	SAN 14:33	DEN 17:50	31%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 3121 SkyWest	SAN 20:21	DEN 23:48	31%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 1329 Southwest	SAN 14:10	DEN 17:31	32%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 682 United Flight history →	SAN 16:01	DEN 19:33	33%	6%	0.2%	77%
WN 3286 Southwest	SAN 17:55	DEN 21:17	33%	7%	0.2%	no record
F9 4990 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 16:51	DEN 20:22	33%	9%	0.7%	81%worse than usual
WN 4151 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 17:20	DEN 20:40	35%	8%	0.2%	45%
WN 1840 Southwest	SAN 10:53	DEN 14:13	35%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 3496 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 13:20	DEN 16:55	38%	6%	0.2%	25%
WN 3497 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 14:55	DEN 18:20	39%	6%	0.2%	31%
WN 2019 Southwest	SAN 15:30	DEN 18:52	39%	6%	0.2%	no record
AS 3012 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:45	DEN 19:18	42%	10%	0.5%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON