tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Today: AA 2535 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–44%.

Safest bet today AA 2535 SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2361 SAN 16:25 → DFW 21:29 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time
Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 2535 American Flight history → SAN 06:20 DFW 11:35 16% 6% 1.2% 85%
F9 1426 Frontier Flight history → SAN 06:35 DFW 12:05 17% 7% 1.3% 79%
AA 373 American Flight history → SAN 07:15 DFW 12:30 21% 6% 1.1% 89%worse than usual
AS 545 Alaska Flight history → SAN 09:52 DFW 15:13 22% 4% 0.7% 86%
AA 2687 American Flight history → SAN 09:50 DFW 15:10 22% 6% 2.7% 84%
AA 1055 American Flight history → SAN 08:00 DFW 13:10 30% 8% 1.1% 84%worse than usual
AA 2476 American Flight history → SAN 11:07 DFW 16:28 30% 7% 2.7% 73%
AA 1467 American Flight history → SAN 12:20 DFW 17:40 30% 9% 2.7% 78%
AS 689 Alaska SAN 17:50 DFW 22:49 31% 7% 0.7% no record
AA 2034 American Flight history → SAN 11:30 DFW 16:31 33% 7% 2.7% 76%
AA 2009 American SAN 12:33 DFW 17:35 33% 8% 2.7% no record
AS 380 Alaska Flight history → SAN 14:25 DFW 19:42 34% 8% 0.7% 67%
AA 2459 American Flight history → SAN 15:08 DFW 20:30 35% 10% 1.9% 42%
AA 2458 American Flight history → SAN 18:45 DFW 23:53 35% 11% 1.9% 49%
AA 2456 American Flight history → SAN 13:55 DFW 19:15 35% 8% 2.7% 74%
AA 1770 American SAN 13:47 DFW 18:51 37% 8% 2.7% no record
AA 2266 American SAN 18:58 DFW 23:54 37% 10% 3.2% no record
F9 1770 Frontier SAN 18:48 DFW 23:55 39% 14% 1.8% no record
AA 2485 American Flight history → SAN 16:32 DFW 21:49 39% 12% 1.8% 41%
AA 638 American SAN 15:20 DFW 20:24 39% 10% 2.7% no record
AA 2361 American Flight history → SAN 16:25 DFW 21:29 44% 13% 2.1% 73%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON